Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Ab Tak 56!!


Our Indian Rupee getting clobbered in the market isn’t a kind of news that catches our attention, as we are all very accustomed to such kind of news. Since last six months or so, the Rupee has been witnessing its worst days. But today it touched a new low in the afternoon breaching the 56 per $ mark. In a way the Rupee has celebrated the Government’s three years in the power!! :P

People who have some concerns about the economy have repeatedly stated their apprehensions about the declining Rupee; but there has been complete inaction by the Government and I am talking about some strong measures that must have been taken. It is really very difficult to understand why some of the major problems are being overlooked by the Government. Common Indian man/woman is the common victim of all this. One reader’s comment caught my eye: “Soniaji, you shall continue to articulate the concern of common people, so long as they are suffering. They have been the biggest victims of the rank misrule of the UPA government. (SOURCE: TruthDive)”. What answer does honorable Soniyaji have to this? 

The news we continuously heard in last few days was that the Finance Ministry is considering hiking the fuel prices after the Parliament session is over and they believe that it will help the Government in the matters of Fiscal Deficit as well as Current Account Deficit. Also FDI in multi brand retail is going to be considered ‘seriously’. But the main aspect in all this is that the Ministry doesn’t expect the situation to improve before the next two weeks. Is this the way the Finance Ministry of a country handles a situation, proposing something in the future and estimating that the situation is not to improve over next two weeks? But again, this fact shows that we are living in India, where the common man comes into the picture only once in a 5 year period.

As we have already seen, the measures already taken by the RBI have managed to just slow down the pace of the declining Rupee temporarily. The RBI’s move to curtail currency arbitrage on Monday went in vain because the policy inaction made Morgan Stanley lower its forecast for our economic growth. Furthermore, as the USD demand from the oil importers increased, the depreciation of the Indian currency continued, eventually breaching the 56 mark today. The Government blamed market forces. In this never ending game of blaming and not taking the responsibility, our Indian economy emerges as the loser every time we face such situations in the market.

The worst case scenario is the BOP, as it has a direct impact on the ECB obligations of many companies and they are going to find it difficult to meet the necessary requirements. Depreciating Rupee also shuts the doors for any new foreign currency flow into the Indian markets. This adds more pressure on the already over-stretched Indian economy. One of the interviews I read on the net revealed that many experts see this problem as a structural one rather than a cyclical one, recommending that we need some measures, considering the problem as a structural one.

At this moment I recall a very fundamental and basic concept that can be applied to all the issues, let them be on a personal level, micro-economic level, or macro-economic level: “If we have our base strong and if we cover all the basic problems, then we can always get out of any predicament.” Keeping in mind all the basic concepts and applying them to every situation coming one’s way can even help in avoiding any unpleasant situation. We should look for the main problem which is the cause of all the other problems and sort that out first instead of trying to solve each and every problem which is just the result and not the cause. And so, I suppose, for this structural problem, we need remedial measures sorting out the fundamental policy issues which, I think are at the root of all.

Cheers!! :)

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